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北美木材供货不足,导致家具企业成本居高不下

Insufficient supply of wood in North America, leading to high cost of furniture companies


Editor's note: For the North American wood industry, these months are extremely lively. North American Free Trade Agreements, forest fires and pine beetles have seriously affected timber prices and supplies. For months, industry experts have been speculating about the possibility of prices returning to normal. Forest researchers are also concerned about the long-term, beyond-imagined impact of natural disasters on the regeneration and supply of wood species.

First, the various problems that have occurred recently have made it difficult to have a clear grasp of the current state of the industry.

After a substantial increase in 2016, Canada’s exports to the United States remained relatively stable. This year, tariffs have affected some of the smaller companies, and sawn timber exports in Canada have been flattening. Instead, Canada is increasing its exports to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other markets.

Second, from 1991 to 2009, Canada’s market share in the United States has been 32-34%. However, in 2017, Canada’s production and shipments to the United States did not increase, but consumption increased. Because the beetle impact has destroyed 20% of Canada's trees, BC, which accounts for 45% of Canada's timber production, will gradually decline in output over the next 5 years.

Canada’s market share in the United States will likely drop to 26%. In addition, the recent financial market does not appear to be particularly disturbed by the breakdown of the NAFTA negotiations, and the plunge of the Mexican peso seems to be the most obvious case.

Latent concerns and uneasiness have surfaced, especially in the timber market.

Although this debate has continued for some time, the soaring price of wood futures last year caused the timber industry to be hit again. Wood prices can be used as an important indicator of trade relations between Canada and the United States. The futures market is closely watching this tension. At the same time, the timber volume in Chicago rose by nearly 30% in 2017, triggering concerns of tight supply.

Third, timber prices have continued to rise without any signs of slowing down.

The current situation is that the demand for wood does not seem to slow down, but due to recent natural disasters, North American production is limited and prices have soared. The market situation in the future is unknown. Although many industry players are watching and waiting for the market to remain stable, prices should continue to remain high for the near term.

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