Paper industry December report: paper product prices rose slightly

From January to November 2009, the cumulative production of domestic paper and paperboard reached 84.67 million tons, and the upward trend continued, up 11.9% year-on-year; the monthly output in November was 8.72 million tons, up 28.8% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the unapplied growth of the paper is the uncoated printed writing paper. The main reason is that the spring textbooks are printed, and the various types of statistical reports at the end of the year increase the amount of paper used. From January to November, the cumulative output of pulp was 17.56 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.1%, which is getting closer to the same period last year. In November, the year-on-year growth rate reached 32.5%, an increase of 3.8% from the previous month. Under the influence of global production reduction, the international pulp price continues to rise. The pulp line of many domestic pulp-paper integrated enterprises has gradually resumed production, increasing the self-sufficiency rate, and the output growth trend is still continuing.

From January to November, the accumulated imported pulp was 12.67 million tons, +43.5% year-on-year, and the waste paper was 25.2 million tons, +13.4%;

Paper and cardboard imports were 2.99 million tons, -9.1%, and exports were 3.29 million tons, -2.4%. According to the monthly data, imported pulp was 960,000 tons in November, +68.4% year-on-year, -10.3% from the previous month; imported waste paper was 2.08 million tons, +8.3% year-on-year, +6.7% from the previous month; imported paper and cardboard 270,000 tons, +12.5%, the chain remained unchanged; exports of paper and cardboard 300,000 tons, +25.0% year-on-year, -3.2%.

The end of the year is the peak season for paper demand. The market demand is driven by the low inventory, which has caused the recent increase in pulp prices. On December 15th, the price of softwood in the European market was US$797/ton, up from the beginning of the year +24.2%, compared with the low of the year +38.1%. The price of broadleaf pulp is US$700/ton, which is +19.8% compared with the beginning of the year, compared with the low of the year +45.0%. The price of softwood pulp in the US market closed at US$829/ton, compared with +12.3% at the beginning of the year, compared with the low of the year +30.2%. The Chinese market broad-leaf pulp price is 656 US dollars / ton, compared with +49.4% at the beginning of the year, compared with the year low +68.4%.

On December 18th, the price of No. 8 waste paper (old newspaper) reached US$189/ton, up 68% from the beginning of the year, and US Waste 11# (old cardboard paper) reached US$194/ton, year-to-date price Up 78%. We believe that under the influence of multiple factors such as rising sea freight rates and declining inventories, if the global economy recovers significantly in 10 years, there is still room for further increase in waste paper prices.

The biofuel tax credit (black liquor as a hybrid fuel, with a $0.50/gallon rebate) reduces the manufacturing costs of the paper mill, but the US government's black liquor subsidy policy for the mill's $200/ton slurry At the end of the year, whether the extension is still uncertain. Once this subsidy is cancelled, it will not be conducive to the supply of pulp, and the price of coniferous pulp will rise further. Although the current pulp price has already stimulated the production line of the previous shutdown to resume production, it still takes a while.