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At the beginning of the new year, home-listed companies have repeatedly disclosed 2018 annual performance forecasts. In the challenging situation last year, Ou Pai Home, Sofia, and Shangpin Home Furnishings continued to grow steadily, but at the same time, some companies’ net profit declined. phenomenon. A number of securities analysts and industry experts believe that with the emergence of signs of upstream real estate recovery, the industry development model has gradually become clear and mature, there may be a performance turning point in 2019, the home industry or the overall "rejuvenation."
Three custom companies' revenue growth of 15%-30%
Judging from the transcripts submitted by the three major custom-made companies, such as Ou Pai Home, Sofia, and Shangpin Home, although they did not achieve high growth of over 30%, the three still maintained a steady growth trend. The results announcement issued by Ou Paijiao showed that Ou Pai Home is expected to increase its operating income by RMB 145,653 to RMB 2,475.4 million in 2018, an increase of 15 to 25% over the same period of the previous year. Compared with its operating income of 9.7 billion yuan announced in its 2017 financial report, Europa Homes exceeded 10 billion revenue for the first time.
According to the performance forecast released by Sophia and Shangpin Home Delivery, the operating income is expected to increase by about 15%-20% and 20%-30% respectively. In the third quarterly report released by Sophia on October 30, 2018, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to increase by 10%-30% compared with the same period of the previous year. In January of this year, Sophia revised this data to 5 %-10%. In the third quarter financial report released in 2018, Sophia said that operating, sales, research and development, and management fees have risen to varying degrees. For the reasons for this performance correction, a securities analyst who did not want to be named believes that industry competition has intensified due to the lag in real estate in the fourth quarter of last year. The price cuts, Xintuo stores and structural adjustments caused the gross profit margin to decline year-on-year. Sophia increased its support for dealers and the intensity of advertising, which also caused sales expenses to increase year-on-year.
In terms of continuous growth, Ou Pai Home said that through the promotion of channels, dealer management, product system reforms, etc., it has steadily increased its performance in 2018; Shangpin Home Furnishing, through the introduction of customized furniture new products and large household accessories, We will expand our franchise channels, carry out our own self-operated packaging business, and promote the national layout of Homkoo's whole cloud, and maintain steady growth in performance. Analysts pointed out that according to the third quarter earnings report released by the two in the 2018 period, there was a decline in monetary funds. The European household money capital of 2.1 billion, down from the previous period of 3.2 billion, mainly due to procurement expenses, equity investment, and dividends. Shangpin’s housed currency was 429 million yuan, down from 646 million at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the expansion of Wuxi and Foshan.
Some companies' net profit fell
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While the profits of home-leading companies have grown steadily, some companies’ net profit has declined. In September 2018, Yazhen Home released a loss forecast for the net profit of the shareholders of the listed company, with a loss of more than 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 177.86%. In December last year, it was announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to December 2018 would be 70 million yuan to 80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of over 200%. Yazheng said that competition in the furniture industry has intensified. The trend of real estate industry changes, the development of hardcover houses and custom furniture have had a major impact on the home furnishing supply chain. The company's operating income has declined significantly, capacity utilization is insufficient, and production costs have risen. It is understood that Yazhen Home has expanded the proportion of direct stores in order to better lay out the direct market. The newly added stores are currently in the incubation period and have not yet achieved profitability.
Yongan Forestry, which also performed “unsatisfactory†in 2018, is expected to have a loss of up to 1.35 billion yuan, down by more than 1400% year-on-year. Yongan Forestry said that the change in performance was due to the fact that timber was in a state of restricted cutting, and the production and sales of timber were greatly reduced. Second, because the furniture industry was affected by the lack of liquidity in the domestic market and the regulation of the real estate market, the income was greatly reduced. The reduction is larger. Some insiders analyzed that the impairment of goodwill is also the main reason for the loss. It is understood that after the acquisition of the restructuring of Senyuan Furniture at a high premium in Yongan Forestry in 2015, it has brought about a goodwill of nearly 1 billion yuan. However, after the expiration of the performance commitment, there was a significant decline in 2018.
In January, Yihua Life disclosed the 2018 annual performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 482 million yuan to 557 million yuan in 2018, a decrease of about 196 million yuan to 271 million yuan compared with the same period of last year. The year-on-year decline was about 26%-36%. For the decline in net profit, Yihua Life said that the main reasons are the year-on-year decline in revenue, the increase in domestic raw materials and labor costs, the increase in income and proportion of domestic engineering and channel markets, and rising financing costs. The reporter noted that in the third quarter of 2018 financial report disclosed by Yihua Life in October 2018, there has been a decline in net profit and an increase in financial expenses. From the perspective of the income statement, the financial expenses for the third quarter were 307 million yuan, an increase of 45.46% over the previous period. Yihua Life said that it was mainly due to the expansion of business scale and the increase in financing costs. In addition, government subsidies received decreased compared with the same period of the previous year, and other income decreased by 39.24%. The investment income from the disposal of long-term equity investment decreased compared with the same period of the previous year, and the investment income decreased by 101.29%.
This year's performance is expected to rebound and rebound
Since the beginning of this year, there has been a rebound in the home sector. Tianfeng Securities believes that it is mainly affected by the expected consumption stimulus policy. In 2019, the home industry may show a turning point in performance, mainly due to the increase in the number of completed housing in 2019 and the expected turnover of second-hand housing. After the end of the barbaric development period of the channel dividend, the home enterprise will become a new growth engine for the dealers.
Tianfeng Securities believes that due to the high base in the first quarter of 2018, the finished home sector has a large growth pressure in the first quarter of 2019. Thanks to the decline in raw material prices, the profit growth rate is better than the revenue growth. At the same time, the continued growth of the income side also needs attention. The marginal improvement of real estate growth, the continuous channel sinking of enterprises to obtain greater market share, the expansion of new categories and the improvement of store operation efficiency and the performance of the same store.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said in an interview that in 2018, the household industry maintained a steady growth of 10%-30% in revenue and profits, and some companies suffered losses. This has been going on for two years. There is a big correlation between real estate regulation and control. Under the control of real estate, the transaction volume of real estate is affected. Yang Delong expects that the real estate regulation and control will be slightly loose this year, and the transaction volume may rebound. It is recommended that consumers pay attention to the leading brands in the industry.
In this regard, Zeng Yong, secretary-general of the Guangdong Customized Home Furnishing Association, also expressed hope for this year: "After last year's high growth of over 30%, this year will be a year full of opportunities." (Source: Information Times Wang Yingting)
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